Bulgaria: Early Elections on the Horizon

President Radev handed over a mandate to the second-largest political force in Parliament, There Is Such a People (TISP), to form a government, following GERB-UDF failed to find coalition partners and secure a majority. The party immediately returned it as they would not like to enter into any coalitions with status quo parties and they wish to keep their promise to refrain from forming unprincipled coalitions. This also means that there is no chance to create an operational coalition and most likely the President will have to call for early elections.

Currently, the expected date is July or August. Media outlets quoted several political analysts who shared their expectations. They agreed that GERB has the resources (both financial and administrative) to win back some of those electorates they had lost with a narrow margin. The fate of the BSP (socialists) depends on voter mobilization and whether the elderly, who were afraid to participate in the April elections, will be ready to cast their votes in July.

Slavi Trifonov’s TISP will win even more votes in July if the current Parliament facilitates further voting abroad. All analysts agreed that the decisive question will be which and how many smaller formations will pass the 4 percent threshold.

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