Election sprint in Hungary: 16 years of Fidesz rule under review

Opinion polls are divergent, but results from government-independent research institutes suggest the possible defeat of the Orbán government in Hungary. This prospect is as unusual as the election campaign itself has been.

As Hungary approaches Sunday’s election, it finds itself in a political situation unprecedented in the past decade and a half. The Fidesz–KDNP, dominant since 2010, is now facing a new type of credible challenger in the Tisza Párt, whose rise is closely tied to the political emergence of Magyar Péter.

The “Magyar Péter phenomenon” differs in several respects from previous opposition attempts. He is not a traditional outsider challenger, but rather a figure familiar with the inner workings of the system (having previously belonged to the third tier of the governing Fidesz), and he formulates his criticism from within. This lends him a particular kind of credibility, while allowing him to reach voter groups that were previously aligned with the governing party. The performance of the political movement associated with him has been unprecedented: in the 2024 European Parliament elections, emerging virtually from nowhere, it captured 30% of the vote, absorbed almost the entire opposition electorate, and most independent pollsters now measure a significant lead over the Fidesz, which has governed with a two-thirds majority for 16 years.

The Tisza Party’s campaign is less ideological and far more focused on governance, transparency, and accountability, bringing new emphases into the political competition. At the same time, one of the most striking features of the campaign has been the emergence of unusual and often difficult-to-interpret elements. Dominant narratives in the public sphere have revolved around “repentant” police officers, intelligence officials, and even members of the military, who present themselves as insiders offering authentic criticism of the system’s functioning, corruption, and politicization. A typical campaign dynamic now sees an interview with a whistleblower appear on YouTube in the morning and reach millions of views by the following day. Regardless of their factual accuracy or verifiability, these phenomena indicate that the campaign has moved beyond traditional political frameworks and increasingly touches on trust in state institutions.

Similarly, the so-called “Serbian bomb” case - explosives reportedly found near a gas pipeline running toward Hungary -highlights the strong presence of a security dimension in the campaign, as well as public skepticism toward stories appearing in pro-government media. Political actors are actively incorporating themes of stability and threat perception into the public discourse.

The campaign messages of the two main political forces differ sharply. Fidesz–KDNP builds its strategy around stability, sovereignty, governing experience, and security, particularly in an uncertain international environment. Its narrative emphasizes that the current system guarantees the country’s functionality and protection against external risks. In contrast, the Tisza Párt campaign is primarily system-critical, focusing on transparency, accountability, and the promise of a new political culture. This approach is less ideological and more centered on institutional performance and governance.

The international dimension of the campaign has also intensified in recent days. The visit of J. D. Vance signals that American conservative political circles continue to closely monitor developments in Hungary. At the same time, the absence of Donald Trump suggests that international actors are positioning themselves cautiously and waiting to see how the balance of power evolves.

Another notable feature of the campaign has been leaks pointing to the government’s and Szijjártó Péter’s close ties with Russia, which many analysts interpret as signs of diminishing patience among Western European governments.

The stakes of the election can be understood on multiple levels. Domestically, the question is whether the current, highly centralized model of governance will persist or whether a transformation will begin. Institutionally, the functioning of the state itself is at stake, while internationally, Hungary’s position within the European Union- “West or East” - and within the broader system of great power relations may shift.

All of this unfolds in an exceptionally intense and tense campaign atmosphere, marked by the visible protest participation of younger generations who have grown up during the Orbán era. The political contest is highly polarized, yet its outcome appears more open than in previous elections.

Voting begins at 6 a.m. on Sunday, and due to the characteristics of the vote-counting system, the most important results are likely to be known by the evening. However, because of the record number of votes cast from abroad - which arrive with delays -the final result may take up to a week to be confirmed.