As Lithuanian PM Simonyte exits, analyst assesses last four years

Lithuania’s outgoing government led by Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte faced multiple crises over its four years in power, some of them natural, and others self-inflicted, local media wrote as she left office.

Black swan events from the start

Simonyte’s centre-right government took office amidst the Covid-19 pandemic in late 2020. The new government implemented tough quarantine, followed by an extensive vaccination campaign and the introduction of vaccine passes. This provoked anger among anti-vaccination segments of the population, culminating in an August 2021 riot when thousands rallied in front of the Parliament, with 87 defendants still facing trial.

Another back swan event came in May 2021, when the regime of Alexander Lukashenko diverted a plane from Athens to Minsk to arrest Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich, with around 100 Lithuanian citizens onboard.

When the EU responded with sanctions, Lukashenko stopped preventing migrants from entering Lithuania, creating a corridor for people mostly from the Middle East and Africa. The Lithuanian government had to decide how to manage those who had already entered and secure the border amid what it called a “hybrid attack”.

As the war in Ukraine passed the two-year mark, in April 2024, the Simonyte government considered repatriating Ukrainian men of military age living in Lithuania to Ukraine to be drafted into the Ukrainian army, with her support.

Matas Baltrukevicius, an analyst at the Vilnius Policy Analysis Institute, noted that these crises set the Simonyte government apart from its predecessors, describing the context as “the most unfavourable and the most difficult”.

Corruption, education scandals plagued Simonyte gov’t

However, some problems were self-inflicted. Simonyte’s government nearly fell over sanctions against potash fertiliser producer Belaruskali. The US imposed sanctions on Belaruskali in December 2021, but the Lithuanian government allowed its cargo to transit through Lithuania until January. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and Transport Minister Marius Skuodis offered to resign, but Simonyte declined their offers.

In 2023 an investigation into local politicians’ expenses focused on three ministers. In the aftermath Education Minister Jurgita Siugzdiniene resigned, while Finance Minister Gintare Skaiste reimbursed her expenses. Simonyte’s party proposed early elections if MPs did not approve the government’s resignation. However, Parliament rejected this and Simonyte rescinded her resignation offer.

Education issues also plagued the government. After 35% of students failed their state mathematics exam, the Education Ministry introduced extra tutoring, with mixed results. The Director of the National Education Agency and Deputy Education Minister resigned, followed by Education Minister Gintautas Jakstas.

The largest scandal involved Social Security and Labour Minister Monika Navickiene, who resigned after taking a free flight to Dubai on a private plane with a entrepreneur convicted of financial crimes. Throughout these crises, Simonyte was slow to demand resignations, local media commented.

“I think that clinging to a team is not a good leadership trait,” said Baltrukevicius, calling the proposal of early elections a self-created crisis. Sometimes, political scandals were also caused by complicated relations between the government and the head of state. Baltrukevicius noted that ambition and grievances often got in the way, especially in the selection of the European commissioner.

A member of Homeland Union since 2022, having previously been an independent, Simonyte was twice a candidate in the presidential elections, in 2019 and 2024, but lost in the second round runoff to Gitanas Nauseda on both occasions.