Polexit – a little more than a bad joke

Support for EU membership in Poland remains very high, even though it has declined somewhat. At the same time, according to a recent survey, the share of those who would favour leaving the Union has grown and now exceeds 10 percent.

Based on the results of a multi-country public opinion study, support for remaining in the European community is extremely strong in the EU’s most important member states. This is mainly due to two factors: the visible failure of Brexit – which serves as a deterrent for other countries – and the increasing threat from Russia, which enhances the security value of EU membership.

Poland, however, stands out somewhat. While in other countries the pro-exit camp is barely measurable, in Poland the proportion of those who would support Polexit is in the double digits (i.e., above 10 percent). According to experts quoted in the media, this is particularly worrying because Poland is one of the EU’s largest and—given current geopolitical circumstances—one of its most important members. The rise of radical, anti-EU political forces could destabilise the region at a time when unity within the community is crucial due to Russian aggression.

One of the reasons behind this trend is, paradoxically, the strengthening of the Polish economy, which creates the impression for some that the country could stand on its own. But the 2024 farmers’ protests in Poland—directed in part against EU agricultural policy—may also have contributed to the relatively higher level of euroscepticism.