Bulgarian election delivers hung parliament

Bulgarian ex-prime minister Boyko Borissov’s conservative, pro-EU GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) party garnered approximately 25% of the votes in Bulgaria’s 7th general election in 4 years on Sunday, 27 October, falling well short of a majority to rule independently.

An exit poll by local firm Market Links estimated the GERB-SDS alliance with 69 of the 240 parliamentary seats, up 1. GERB said Borissov, the dominant figure in Bulgarian politics for the last two decades, would be its prime ministerial candidate if it secures at least 80 MPs.

Centrist, pro-EU, liberal PP (We Continue the Change) was predicted to garner 36 seats, down 3, and called for an independent prime minister with anti-corruption credentials.

The far-right, Eurosceptic Vazrazhdane (Revival) party was predicted to gain 34 MPs, down 4, left-wing, mainly pro-EU BSPOL 20 (up 1), and EU-neutral ITN 18 (up 2). Nascent Turkish-minority-interest parties DPS-NN and APS are respectively set to garner 31 and 20 seats in the new Parliament, and the new right-wing MECh party 12 seats.

Bulgaria’s half-decade in political limbo continues

Since anti-corruption protests toppled Borissov’s government in 2020, Bulgaria had held 6 elections and had a series of caretaker governments. The last vote in June saw a record-low turnout of 34% and 3 failed attempts to form coalition governments. Voter turnout for Sunday could be even lower.

Local observers said the weekend result will prolong Bulgaria’s political deadlock, rooted in voter disillusionment and the fragmentation of party support, which has left the country politically unsettled.

The prolonged deadlock has stalled anti-corruption reforms, halted Bulgaria’s EU-backed energy transition projects, and frustrated ambitions to join the Eurozone and Schengen Area, as conservative, reformist, and far-right factions vie for influence in the country.

Prospective PM rules out far-right alliance

Borissov has signaled an intention to form a new government while ruling out cooperation with Vazrazhdane, emphasising the challenges of coalition-building in Bulgaria’s divided Parliament.

He wrote on Facebook on Sunday evening: “The victory of GERB-SDS is definitive! Thanks to all the Bulgarians who voted and increased the electoral turnout. We have made many compromises, but we will not replace the people’s vote in any case – our programme, which was voted for by thousands of Bulgarians, will be fundamental for all who want to have a government,” he added.

As an EU and NATO member, Bulgaria’s internal cultural and geopolitical divisions raise questions about its long-term alignment, with opposition to Western values present within certain demographics.

GERB’s bid to align with the reformist PP-DB in order to marginalise Vazrazhdane reflects deeper social divides, particularly on EU alignment and LGBTQ rights.

Bulgaria’s political crisis is further complicated by strong pro-Russian sentiments among some of the population, evident in Vazrazhdane’s legislative proposals modelled on Russian policies and its appeals for national independence from Western influences.

GERB reportedly may wait until the outcome of the US presidential election on Tuesday, 5 November. Should erstwhile US President Donald Trump, who has a perceived leniency on corruption, return to office, GERB could find itself in a stronger position to build a government with tacit backing from controversial domestic figures.