Romanian election sees populist surge

Romania’s presidential election has delivered an unexpected result, with far-right, pro-Russia candidate Calin Georgescu taking the lead in the first round with 22% support.

With 92.43% of the votes counted, Romania’s first-round presidential election results revealed The Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) leader and relative newcomer Georgescu had narrowly won, a remarkable debut showing, ahead of pro-Western Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who garnered 20% of the votes.

Close behind was Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD (S&D) with 20%, down 2 percentage points (pp), while progressive Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union USR (RE) secured 19% (+4 pp). Far-right populist George Simion won 14%, also reflecting a rise in nationalist support.

The positive result for Georgescu defied exit polls and has rocked the Balkan country, after a campaign of anti-Western, pro-Russian, and far-right rhetoric. Observers called the result Romania’s “worst case scenario” that sets up a stark choice for voters in the second, run-off, round on December 8.

Campaigns focused on economic grievances, including Romania’s soaring cost of living – the country currently has the highest inflation in the EU – and high poverty rate, which the EU has identified as its largest share of at-risk populations.

The combined votes for Georgescu and Simion highlight the growing popularity of “sovereignist” ideologies that threaten Romania’s pro-Western alignment and democratic values. The election reflects a broader European trend of political polarization and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics, with Romania’s democratic and geopolitical trajectory now hanging in the balance.

Georgescu’s promises to end Romania’s “subservience” to the EU and NATO—especially regarding support for Ukraine and NATO’s missile defence system—signal a potential realignment of Romania’s foreign policy. The result jeopardises its reputation as a stable, pro-Western democracy and risks alienating international partners and deterring investors. The second round of elections could deepen the divide.

The Georgescu campaign’s use of clips on Chinese social media platform TikTok bypassed traditional media to build a grassroots following frustrated with the political establishment. 

On Sunday evening Georgescu said “the rich of the system, today, in Romania, have become poorer, and the people, the poor Romanian people, have enriched themselves from this point of view. We have a duty to rebuild Romania and that is the most important.” Calling “the family, the backbone of the Romanian society” Georgescu looked forward to the second round, saying “We were many to vote and will also be many to vote in the second round.”

Crisis for pollsters

The blame game started as results rolled in; with Romania’s press, political institutions, and intelligence services accused of inflating Georgescu’s candidacy to weaken Simion, and failing to address Russian election meddling, allowing him to ascend unchecked. This echoes global populist trends, and parallels Donald Trump’s recent successful campaign in the US. 

PNL’s Nicolae Ciuca suffered a dramatic drop to 9% (-29 pp), signalling waning support for the party. Other notable performances include UDMR’s Hunor Kelemen at 5% (+1 pp) and several new independent candidates, including Mircea Geoană (6%) and Cristian Diaconescu (3%).

The result also highlights the inaccuracies of exit polls, which had projected Ciolacu as the frontrunner, followed by Lasconi. Despite the unpredictability of the results, voter turnout was consistent with the previous election at 51%, reflecting steady engagement amidst a turbulent political environment.