Right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki won Poland’s presidential run-off ballot with 50.89% of the vote, narrowly beating Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski (49.11%), the Polish National Electoral Commission confirmed Monday.

An early exit poll released Sunday evening suggested Trzaskowski was set for victory before the picture started to reverse a couple of hours later.

The result will extend Law and Justice (PiS) party influence over the presidency and its continued obstruction of the "big tent" pro-EU governing Civic Coalition (KO) led by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The presidency will remain aligned with PiS through Nawrocki, a conservative historian and political appointee who previously headed the Polish Institute of National Remembrance.

EU funds linked to reform now in peril

Nawrocki is expected to mirror the approach of outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda, also a PiS ally, who has used the veto on at least four occasions to block KO legislation in the wake PiS’s parliamentary defeat in 2023.

The former amateur boxer's election win secures PiS control over a key branch of the state at a time when its formal hold on government has weakened.

The result means the KO will face structural limits on its reform programme, including judicial restructuring, public media appointments and access to EU funds linked to rule-of-law criteria. Overriding a presidential veto requires a three-fifths supermajority in the Sejm: beyond the current numbers held by the KO and its allies.

The remaining tranches, worth more than EUR 20bn, are conditional on reforms including the restoration of judicial independence, dismantling of the disciplinary chamber and implementation of a fair appeals process. Nawrocki’s presidency could delay or block legislation needed to meet these benchmarks.

Proposals to overhaul the Constitutional Tribunal, replace PiS-era appointees at Telewizja Polska (TVP), and restructure the civil service will now require presidential approval unlikely to be granted.

KO candidate Trzaskowski briefly claimed victory on Sunday night based on exit polls. Nawrocki refused to concede and told supporters in Gdansk, north Poland, that he expected to prevail. By early Monday, the official count confirmed his win. Turnout was 71.4%.

Knife-edge vote underlines Polish division

The campaign sharpened long-standing divides within Poland’s electorate. Trzaskowski dominated major urban centres and younger voters. Nawrocki carried rural regions and older demographics, reinforcing the PiS base in eastern and southeastern districts.

Nawrocki’s alignment with PiS was informal but clear. He received public backing from senior party figures and congratulations from allies of the European hard right, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Both lead parties in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc, where PiS is a major force. Nawrocki’s win will serve as a strategic gain for the ECR, bolstering its narrative of sovereignty, national identity and resistance to EU centralisation.

Despite a strong urban turnout, Trzaskowski failed to break into PiS’s rural strongholds, particularly in eastern and southeastern voivodeships. Political observers said on Monday that the KO may have overestimated the impact of economic dissatisfaction while underplaying the endurance of nationalist sentiment among older voters.

With PiS framing the presidency as a bulwark against “foreign influence”, the campaign successfully mobilised its base despite allegations related to past misconduct and associations with football hooliganism. As well as Orban and Meloni, Nawrocki received public endorsements from US President Donald Trump, highlighting his alignment with other right-wing leaders.

Veto powers set to frustrate ruling coalition

Nawrocki’s victory is expected to trigger a new phase of legislative deadlock, as the presidency can block or delay government initiatives. The Polish head of state also holds influence over judicial appointments, foreign policy and national security policy coordination.

Tusk may shift to EU-level workarounds, administrative reform or legal manoeuvring, but significant legislative progress will be slow and politically costly, local analysts said on Monday.

The European Commission had not formally commented on the result at time of publication. Brussels resumed frozen EU recovery fund disbursement to Poland in late 2023 after Tusk took office, but has linked future transfers to legal reforms that now face likely resistance.

Nawrocki will be sworn in in August, extending PiS's hold over the presidency into a third consecutive term.