Dodik allies plan referendum after Bosnian court upholds president's impeachment
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Central Election Commission (CEC) removed Milorad Dodik from the presidency of Republika Srpska (RS) on August 18, after the Court of BiH upheld that he had defied the decrees of the International High Representative.
The CEC's final ruling upheld Dodik's ban from public office for six years and confirmed a one-year prison sentence, later converted to a fine, formally ending Dodik’s mandate.
Dodik had ordered the RS Official Gazette not to publish decisions from the internationally appointed overseer, directly challenging the authority that enforces Bosnia’s post-war settlement.
Observers said the development marks BiH's gravest political crisis since the Dayton Agreement ended the 1992-95 war.
Court ruling triggers crisis
Acting on the Court of BiH judgment of August 6, the CEC stripped Dodik of the presidency and declared that all legal avenues had been exhausted. The ruling leaves RS in a constitutional vacuum, with entity authorities insisting they no longer recognise the federal judicial order.
Dodik allies in the Serb-majority RS vowed defiance. The entity’s leaders argue that Dodik remains their legitimate president, accusing Sarajevo institutions of a coup against RS autonomy. In RS's political centre of Banja Luka, north west BiH, MPs passed a motion on August 23 to hold a referendum rejecting the decision. Meanwhile, opposition MPs argued that prolonged confrontation with state institutions risks economic isolation and deepening international sanctions.
Regional and international reactions
The Russian embassy in Sarajevo denounced the verdict as politically motivated, warning it could “destabilise Bosnia’s fragile unity”. The Kremlin has long cultivated ties with Dodik and opposed the oversight powers of the Office of the High Representative.
Western governments welcomed the enforcement of the ruling. The EU and US have repeatedly criticised Dodik for legislation curbing federal oversight, and secessionist rhetoric to withdraw RS from Bosnia’s military, judiciary and tax system. Analysts described the Court’s decision as a rare assertion of federal authority over the Serb entity.
Historical context
Dodik, once seen as a moderate reformer, has shifted over two decades into a hardline nationalist who consistently tests BiH's post-war settlement.
Observers warn that the standoff risks entrenching ethnic polarisation and fuelling instability in the Western Balkans. While the Court’s ruling has settled the legal question of Dodik’s mandate, the political crisis it has unleashed remains unresolved.
UK daily The Guardian has described the crisis as “the most dangerous moment since 1995,” with Bosnia caught between the letter of the Dayton Constitution and open defiance by one of its constituent entities.