With Orban trailing, new report sees 2025 as ‘pivotal’ for Hungary
Reading Time: 4 minutesHungary’s political landscape is marked by a mix of economic uncertainty increasing opposition momentum and continued tensions with the EU, according to the annual report of independent Budapest-based think tank Policy Solutions.
“Fifteen years in power was supposed to be a key milestone when things could have mellowed for Viktor Orbán; not that he necessarily wants things to be mellow,” the annual report begins.
The ruling Fidesz-KDNP government led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has faced new political challenges, particularly from the emergence of the Tisza Party and its leader, former party insider turned rival, Peter Magyar.
“The sudden rise of the mid-tier Fidesz manager Peter Magyar as a formidable challenger to Viktor Orban’s regime reflects how deep the disappointment of the Hungarian public runs,” Policy Solutions adds.
Simultaneously Hungary’s relationship with Brussels remains strained while the shifting global political climate including US President Donald Trump’s influence, further complicating its foreign policy.
Fidesz under pressure from economic turmoil, political headwinds
Now 15 years into Orban’s rule, Fidesz faces one of its most challenging periods: while the party has cemented its grip over Hungary’s institutions, the country’s economic situation has caused voter dissatisfaction.
The combination of post-pandemic stagnation record inflation and declining real wages has weakened Fideszs longstanding economic narrative, Policy Solutions writes. Public sentiment that previously blamed the EU and the war in Ukraine as responsible for Hungary’s struggles is now shifting toward holding the government itself responsible.
“The forint is depreciating massively, and prices keep rising: it seems that the patience of a growing number of voters is wearing thin. Even as the dissatisfaction with the economy – once the linchpin of Fidesz’s sustained support – increased and spread through large parts of Hungarian society,” Policy Solutions writes.
“Low salaries were the most pressing issue for Hungarians in 2024 (36%). This issue has moved from third to first place since last year. Only 4% of respondents said that their financial situation had improved,” according to the think tank.
The Hungarian National Bank led by Gyorgy Matolcsy last year publicly criticised government policies further highlighting economic mismanagement. Matolcsy’s departure in 2025 may allow Orban more control over monetary policy, but addressing budget deficits, inflation, and a weakened forint remains a Herculean task.
Magyar’s Tisza opposition overtakes governing parties in polls
A defining moment of 2024 was the emergence of Peter Magyar as a challenger to Orban. A former mid-level Fidesz operative, Magyar capitalised on public frustration and presented himself as an anti-corruption reformer. In the European Parliament EP elections, Tisza secured 30% of the vote becoming the strongest opposition force since Fidesz’s return to power in 2010.
“For the first time in 20 years, there is a single party in Hungary that could challenge Fidesz without forming uneasy alliances that tarnish its brand,” the think tank writes.
Unlike previous opposition movements, Tisza has drawn significant support from former Fidesz voters, making it a unique threat to the ruling party. Magyar’s appeal lies in his ability to channel economic grievances, frame himself as a credible right-wing alternative, and leverage widespread media coverage. However, his lack of a structured party organisation and policy platform remains a potential vulnerability, the Budapest-based think tank writes.
Opposition split, alliances uncertain
Despite Tisza’s surge, Hungary’s opposition remains fragmented. While more established opposition forces such as the Democratic Coalition (DK) and Momentum slump in the polls, the far-right Our Homeland party maintained its foothold. The question remains whether Tisza can consolidate the opposition into a unified front against Fidesz in 2026 or whether internal divisions will weaken its attempts, according to the report.
Another challenge is whether Magyar can transition from a protest candidate to a viable governing alternative, as thus far his political strategy has centred on himself, rather than a structured party apparatus. If Tisza is to maintain its rise, it will need to develop a broader leadership team and a clear policy agenda
Hungary positions between Brussels, Trump
Orban’s foreign policy in 2024 continued to prioritise sovereignty over EU integration, although his attempts to strengthen alliances with like-minded nativist populists have yielded mixed results. While he played a key role in forming the new Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament – uniting parties including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally – Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s Law and Justice party eschewed the initiative.
Despite these efforts, Hungary’s EU presidency in the second half of 2024 failed to achieve significant policy shifts in Brussels. The Hungarian government’s provocative stance on Ukraine and judicial independence continued to isolate it within the EU, while Orbans visit to Moscow where he met with Vladimir Putin drew sharp criticism from European leaders.
“The project of building a unified populist right at the European level has failed once again for now. Despite Orban’s efforts, the European populist right remains divided,” Policy Solutions writes.
On the transatlantic front Trump’s influence on Hungary remains a wildcard. While Orban is positioning himself as a key European ally of Trump, the extent to which this relationship will translate into tangible benefits for Hungary remains uncertain and could intensify tensions with mainstream European powers.
Issues for 2025: economic stability vs public discontent
Several key dynamics will shape Hungarian politics in the coming year; notably the government’s ability to stabilise inflation and boost real wages, ahead of the 2026 elections.
Whether Peter Magyar can create a structured political force will determine his long-term viability as a challenger to Fidesz. The ongoing disputes over rule of law conditions and EU funds will test Hungary’s position within the bloc. The key question is whether Orban can maintain his political dominance, in the face of rising domestic challenges, and the coming year will be pivotal in determining the future trajectory of Hungary’s political landscape, the report concludes.