PiS places first in Polish local elections as KO fails to deliver knockout blow

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Nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), toppled last year after eight years in power by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) grouping, came first in the country’s local government elections, an exit poll showed Sunday, 7 April.

The election is seen as a bellwether for the upcoming performance of the populist right-wing in the upcoming European elections in June. PiS scored 33.7%, ahead of centrist KO at 31.9%, according to Ipsos’s exit poll. The other ruling coalition groupings, the Christian conservative Third Way and The Left respectively won 13.5% and 6.8% of the votes.

Tusk noted that strong turnout in PiS heartlands in eastern Poland and the provinces had contributed to the result. He wrote on Facebook on Monday: “What brings you joy? Systematic loss recovery: 7 points in 2018, 5 points in 2023, and 2 today. Record-breaking win in the cities. Superiority in the sejmiks,” referring to Poland’s historical regional assemblies.

“What is he worried about?” Tusk continued, “Demobilisation, especially among young people, is a failure in the east and the countryside. Bottom line for us? We don’t complain! Let’s get to work!”

Poland’s voters cast ballots for 16 regional assemblies, 6 of which were held by PiS, as well as for local councillors and mayors. Poland’s TVN television estimated that KO won in 10 regions, up from 7 in 2018, and PiS led in 6. The official regional results will be announced on Tuesday.

Despite being the most successful single party, PiS was still well behind the combined score of the three groupings that make up the Tusk-led coalition government. PiS also lost control of several regional governments, according to Ipsos’s exit poll.

In areas where mayoral candidates failed to secure a simple majority, a second-round vote will be held in two weeks. The official regional results are due Tuesday.

Kaczynski upbeat, Trzaskowski wins landslide in Warsaw

The result was not the knockout blow that KO had hoped for. PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski quoted the famous witticism of US writer Mark Twain that “reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated, adding that: “We now need to win the EU election and the presidential election before we try to win the next general election.”

Liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 52, seemed to have easily secured re-election without a second-round vote, with around 60% of the vote, strengthening a second possible tilt at the presidency next year. PiS also fared poorly in the cities of Krakow, south Poland, Wroclaw, south-west Poland, and Gdansk, north Poland.

The KO won the general election in October on an election ticket promising to reverse democratic backsliding, increase women’s and minority rights and end the major disputes with the EU that characterised much of the PiS tenure.

PiS ally Polish President Andrzej Duda, 51, who defeated Trzaskowski in 2020, stated that he would not be an easy friend to the KO after last year’s election victory, and late last month vetoed a bill to ease women’s access to the morning-after pill.

Securing an ally as Polish head of state would remove Duda as an obstruction for Tusk to carry out his agenda and clear the path to KO’s election promise to reform the judiciary. “Today we see that this road will not be easy, including in the future,” Tusk said.