Centrist takes first round of Poland’s presidential election, to face nationalist in runoff vote

Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won in the first round of Poland’s presidential election, setting up a closely contested runoff on 1 June.

With 99.75% of votes counted, Trzaskowski, backed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO) secured 31.3% on 18 May and will face Karol Nawrocki, a Polish nationalist historian supported by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who came second with 29.1%.

The result sets the stage for a runoff that will decide whether Poland continues on its recent shift back towards the European mainstream, or returns to a more nationalist trajectory.

Tusk gov’t considers Duda obstacle to reform

The election follows months of tension between Polish President Andrzej Duda, whose second and final term ends this summer, and the Tusk government. Since returning to power in December 2023, Tusk’s coalition has struggled to implement parts of its reform agenda, with Duda frequently using his presidential veto to block legislation. 

Duda, a long-time PiS ally, has framed his actions as defending the Constitution. However observers say he has undermined the government’s efforts to restore judicial independence and rebuild relations with the EU.

Trzaskowski has campaigned on restoring rule of law, defending minority rights and strengthening EU ties. For his part, Nawrocki, who rose to prominence as head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, has promised to defend traditional values and national sovereignty, continuing the confrontational stance of the outgoing president.

Candidates will seek to woo far-right voters

Far-right candidates secured more than 20% of the vote combined in the first round, and their voters are expected to play a decisive role in the runoff. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have begun efforts to appeal to these voters, who hold the balance of power.

Turnout in the first round was 58%, reflecting high voter engagement but also signalling that mobilisation efforts will be critical in the second round. A victory for Trzaskowski would represent a further step towards stabilising relations with the EU after PiS’s years of conflict over judicial reforms, media freedom and minority rights. A win for Nawrocki would likely mean a reemergence of friction between Warsaw and Brussels.

As Poland prepares for the runoff on 1 June, voters are being asked to choose between two visions of the future: one anchored in European integration, the other in national conservatism. “We are going for victory. I said that it would be close, and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us, and we need determination.”