AUR’s rise reshapes Romanian politics

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First they laughed off George Simion as a fringe agitator. Now, with a commanding first-round lead behind him, the far-right nationalist is one step away from Romania’s presidency. His opponent on 18 May, Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, is racing to unite the fractured political centre to stop him.

Romania’s political future hangs in the balance as the ultranationalist leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) George Simion faces off in the country’s presidential race against independent candidate Nicusor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest, on 18 May.

On Sunday, Dan is expected to gain support from Romania’s mainstream parties in the second round. However, Simion’s dominance in the first round across both rural and urban areas has raised the prospect of a major political realignment, seeting nerves on edge across the EU, according to Brussels-based website Politico.

The initial 2024 election was voided after intelligence services reported evidence of Russian interference in support of then-candidate Calin Georgescu, a former UN official with far-right views. Romania’s constitutional court nullified the result, leading to months of protests and legal battles.

This cleared the way for Simion, who has been described by international outlets as an ultranationalist, to increase his own vote count by over 1.88mn and double his national share from under 14% to over 40%.

Although Simion led the first round with 41%, the second-round contest on 18 May is a much narrower race. Dan, who finished second with 21%, is well placed to consolidate much of the anti-AUR vote. One post–first-round poll conducted by INSCOP shows Simion leading Dan by a margin of 52% to 48%, while another, by Verifield, projects a wider 55% to 45% victory for the nationalist candidate.

Dan can expect to attract the supporters of Crin Antonescu, who won 20.35% and was backed by the PSD-PNL-UDMR ruling coalition; Victor Ponta, a centrist former prime minister, who received 13.3%, and Elena Lasconi of USR, representing progressive and pro-European voters, who won 2.67%.

In theory, these combined shares add up to more than 55% of the electorate, enough to overtake Simion if their voters turn out and transfer their support to Dan. However, this outcome is far from guaranteed. Not all supporters of Antonescu or Ponta will be willing to back Dan, who is viewed by some as an outsider with limited nationwide appeal. Moreover, voter turnout is generally lower in the second round.

A survey by INSCOP shows Simion leading Dan 52% to 48%, while another by Verifield projected a 55% to 45% margin of victory for Simon. Simion won the first round against multiple mainstream candidates on 8 May with 41%.

Simion also has momentum, having upped his support in both rural and urban areas. Simion, topped the poll in 36 of the country’s 43 constituencies, and secured 61% of the important diaspora vote. His direct communication style, nationalist messaging and social media campaigns have helped him to mobilise disenchanted voters across the country.

He gained his strongest support in ethnically homogeneous, Romanian-majority counties with strong social-conservative and Orthodox Christian traditions such as Tulcea, winning more than half of the votes. 

Demographics: young men and the economically marginalised

The result marked a dramatic acceleration of AUR’s rise, with Simion more than doubling his share of the vote, after the ban on Georgescu cleared the path for Simion to dominate Romania’s fragmented political field.

AUR’s support base skews male (61%) and young, particularly among those aged 18–35, a 2022 CURS study found. Around a third of AUR voters are unemployed or economically inactive, compared to a national unemployment rate of 4-6%. Some 62% of AUR voters have a high school certificate, 30% do not, and only 8% are graduates.

The party’s strongest support comes from economically marginalised regions such as Romania’s Sud-Est, where the unemployment rate is 9.1%, compared to just 2.8% in the Romanian capital of Bucharest, according to Eurostat.

The overlap between areas with high unemployment and concentrations of young people aligns with AUR’s voter base, suggesting a correlation with socioeconomic marginalisation.

This economic insecurity fuels the party’s anti-elite messaging and appeals to voters who feel left behind by globalisation and post-EU accession reforms.

Simion’s digital presence, especially on TikTok, where he has over 1.5mn followers, has been key to mobilising younger voters disillusioned with traditional politics.

Many of AUR’s supporters express distrust in traditional parties, viewing them as corrupt and self-serving.

AUR’s territorial gains highlight broad voter appeal

Simion’s first-round victories included major cities across all regions of Romania, such as Timisoara, west Romania, Iasi, north-east Romania, Constanta on the Black Sea, Brasov and Sibiu in central Romania, Craiova, south Romania, Galati, east Romania and Arad, west Romania.

Even in Bucharest, south-east Romania, traditionally a centrist and left-of-centre stronghold, Simion managed to win one sector. The fragmented support for other non-far right candidates, such as Antonescu and Ponta, may have contributed to Simion’s ability to win that specific district, however. Dan’s support was concentrated in the capital, despite his setback in one district, and in the progressive university city of Cluj, West Romania.

Pandemic fuelled AUR rise from fringe to force

AUR first gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, organising large-scale protests against lockdowns, vaccination mandates, and digital health certificates. This anti-establishment stance resonated with voters frustrated by economic hardship and government inconsistency.

An incident at the military cemetery in Uz Valley, east central Romania, in 2019 brought AUR into the national consciousness, when AUR activists and other nationalist groups, staged a public incursion during Romanian Heroes’ Day. AUR barged past ethnic Hungarian protesters and placed Romanian flags and Orthodox crosses over graves, many of which belonged to Hungarian soldiers.

The stunt sparked outrage among Hungary’s leaders and ethnic Hungarian communities in Romania, who viewed it as an act of desecration and ethnic provocation. AUR framed the action as a patriotic defence of Romanian heritage, cementing its image as a nationalist force willing to provoke confrontation.

However, analysts argue that the party’s sustained growth is more attributable to its ability to mobilise disillusioned voters through pandemic-era activism and political entrepreneurship.

However, AUR’s long-term political breakthrough is more credibly linked to its ability to channel frustration around COVID:19.

By organising protests against lockdowns, vaccination mandates and digital health certificates, AUR tapped into a growing anti-establishment mood. AUR’s leaders used social media platforms, particularly TikTok, to spread their message to younger and economically marginalised voters, positioning the party as an alternative to Romania’s mainstream political elite.

This strategic use of online messaging on sovereignty, faith, and family values, allowed AUR to build a durable national support base that extended far beyond the events at Uz Valley. By 2020, AUR had entered parliament with 9% of the vote, and by early 2022 was polling above 20%, transforming from a fringe movement into a serious electoral force.

AUR’s ideology chimes with left behind

AUR promotes a platform centred on family, nation, Christian faith and liberty. The party also backs Romanian unification with Moldova and espouses a sovereigntist, Eurosceptic agenda, opposing minority rights, LGBTQ advocacy and EU integration.

AUR’s narrative is deeply rooted in Romanian nationalist mythology, invoking imagery of the “Great Nation” (Romania Mare) and the Daco-Romanian legacy to position itself as the defender of authentic Romanian identity.

Romania’s economy, despite beating Hungary, Slovakia and Portugal for GDP per capita in 2022, remains marked by inequality and instability. Over a quarter of Romanians face poverty or social exclusion, and the country’s Gini coefficient, the key benchmark of national economic disparities, is 31, above the EU average.

Public debt has ballooned from 12.4% of GDP in 2006 to 54.6% in 2024, exacerbated by pandemic-era borrowing and expansive pre-election spending. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s recently downgraded Romania’s debt outlook, warning it could hit 62% of GDP by 2026.

Romania also holds the EU’s largest annual budget deficit, of over 9% of GDP, and faces inflation of 5.1%; again, the highest in the bloc. In response, the country is making concerted efforts to avoid being classified as a potential “bailout case” by international credit rating agencies.

Romania’s rise in living standards has also come at a significant cost. Impressive economic growth has largely been driven by high levels of indebtedness, limited capital accumulation and a steady decline in household savings, raising concerns about the sustainability of this upward trajectory.

Romania’s government has plans to issue EUR 13bn in foreign currency-denominated bonds in 2025 to finance its growing deficit, and while some investors, such as contrarian investment specialist Franklin Templeton, see opportunity, market confidence remains fragile.

The situation has been further exacerbated by an economic slowdown that began in 2022, raising doubts about the government’s ability to reduce the deficit through growth alone. At the same time, Romania’s current account deficit remains difficult to rein in, largely due to persistent fiscal looseness,marked by elevated public spending on salaries, pensions, subsidies, and social assistance, alongside sluggish revenue growth and widening budget deficits. Together, these imbalances represent a textbook example of the “twin deficit” problem, where both budgetary and external gaps feed into one another, heightening macroeconomic vulnerabilities.

Markets are already reacting to Romania’s mounting fiscal challenges, with rising uncertainty reflected in the pricing of its sovereign debt. Investors are growing cautious, though some actors, such as Franklin Templeton, have entered the Romanian government bond market. Templeton is known for investing in countries where mainstream investors typically retreat, signalling increased risk perceptions. In 2025, the Romanian government is expected to issue EUR 13bn worth of foreign currency-denominated bonds, one of the largest issuances among emerging markets. This reflects the country’s acute need for external financing to cover its widening fiscal gap.

Meanwhile, Kelemen has attributed the failure of Romania’s governing parties in the recent elections to their poor economic record. He cited the current administration’s underwhelming performance during 2023-24 and the Constitutional Court’s annulment of the first-round elections as key factors shaping voter disillusionment.

Ethnic Hungarian opposition, regional fault lines

AUR’s nationalist messaging has encountered strong resistance in Romania’s ethnic-Hungarian regions. Simion polled under 9% in the counties of Harghita and Covasna, central Romania, Mures, north-central Romania, and Satu Mare in north-western Romania, reflecting deep-rooted tensions. Hungarian voters have long viewed AUR as hostile to their community, particularly after the Uz Valley episode.

Ethnic-Hungarian Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) president Hunor Kelemen, denounced Simion. “Simion is, above all, anti-Hungarian. This is the root; this is what has nourished him. In the Uz Valley, on the graves of our grandfathers, he wormed his, and AUR’s, way into national politics, only to launch hundreds of lawsuits against our mother tongue, our flags, our symbols and to attack Hungarian schools.”

Simion’s overtures to Orban

Despite these tensions, Simion has sought to align himself with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in power since 2010, praising his positions on sovereignty, Christian values and family policy.

Simion told Euronews and the BBC that Romania and Hungary share regional and historical ties that should bring cooperation rather than conflict. “Whether we like it or not, we live on the same land. We share borders and destinies. We must build the future together,” he said.

During a televised debate last week, Simion said he respects Orban: “many of his policies will be state policies in Romania too. Now is the time for a Europe of Christian nations”

The situation was further complicated by a statement when Orban, giving a speech in Tihany, west Hungary, quoted Simion’s call for “a Europe of nations, a Christian Europe”, declaring “we fully agree”.

Simion quickly amplified Orban’s remarks on social media, posting: “Thank you for your great message, @PM_ViktorOrban! We have a fight to win! Together!”

However, facing a backlash, Orban shifted position, saying in a Facebook post: “This afternoon, I had a telephone conversation with (Kelemen). I made it clear that Hungary has no intention of interfering in Romania’s presidential elections.

“At the same time, the Hungarian government considers the position of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (RMDSZ) to be of key importance, and the interests of Hungarians in Transylvania remain our guiding principle in matters of national policy. We are working with the relevant Romanian leaders to support the well-being and long-term future of Hungarians in Transylvania,” Orban added.

Geopolitical stakes: NATO, regional security

Sunday’s election also has huge geopolitical implications. Romania’s position on NATO’s eastern flank has made its political direction critical for regional security. Hosting US and NATO forces at the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, Romania serves as a key logistics hub for operations in Ukraine and the Black Sea.

While AUR has avoided overt anti-NATO rhetoric, its sovereigntist messaging and criticism of “Western imperialism” introduce ambiguity about Romania’s future alignment. Despite this, Romania remains one of the most pro-US countries in Europe, and any shift away from NATO or the EU would carry significant geopolitical implications.

Political realignment inevitable

Regardless of the result on 18 May, AUR’s vertigious climb from protest movement to electoral contender signals a political realignment for Romania, driven by economic discontent, cultural nationalism and distrust in mainstream politics.

While pollsters predict a tight result, Simion’s framing of the runoff as a choice between “the people” and “the establishment” have made him a major player in a country that had previously rejected exteremist politics.

Regardless of the result, Simion’s rise has already shattered political conventions in Romania. What happens next will shape not only the country’s political future but also its role in Europe’s fragile security architecture, , testing the strength of Europe’s democratic centre in an age of rising extremism.