Far-right candidate leads in polls ahead of Romania presidential election rerun

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Romania will hold fresh presidential elections on 4 May, after its Constitutional Court annulled November’s vote, citing Russian interference.

However, the decision to disqualify nationalist frontrunner Calin Georgescu has seemingly propelled far-right leader George Simion into a commanding position, fuelling concerns about the direction of Romanian democracy.

Generational shift deepens mistrust

The unfolding situation represents a departure for Romania from its recent political trajectory. Unlike neighbours Hungary and Bulgaria, where populists have dominated politics for over a decade, Romania had largely avoided far-right consolidation at the national level. Mainstream parties remained competitive, and democratic institutions were generally more resilient.

Now, that relative stability appears to be eroding. The combination of economic frustration, generational disillusionment, and online radicalisation is reshaping the country’s political landscape. What was once an outlier in the region is now facing many of the same pressures.

Romania’s political direction has implications not only domestically, but for the EU’s eastern frontier as well. A further tilt towards nationalism could complicate cooperation on defence, energy, and rule of law priorities.

Russian interference reshapes election

Georgescu, previously a minor political figure, unexpectedly led the first round on 24 November with nearly 23% of the vote. The Romanian Constitutional Court then annulled the election results on 11 January, citing evidence of a coordinated Russian disinformation campaign.

The one-time UN sustainability adviser ran on a platform espousing Hrana, Apa, Energie (Food, Water, Energy), economic self-sufficiency, Christian values and an independent foreign policy.

After he had accused politicians of betraying national interests, court documents revealed that Georgescu had benefited from more than 25,000 fake TikTok accounts linked to Russian IP addresses, significant undeclared spending on digital ads and over 85,000 cyberattacks on Romania’s electoral infrastructure.

Rather than halting nationalist momentum, Georgescu’s removal appears to have accelerated it, with Simion, founder and leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), now comfortably ahead in the polls.

Far-right fills Georgescu-shaped void

Simion was born in Focsani, east Romania, in 1986 and entered public life as a nationalist activist focused on Romanian-Moldovan unity. After the foundation of AUR in 2019, under his leadership, it entered Parliament with 9% of the vote in 2020.

Confrontational and populist, Simion has built a strong social media following by promoting national sovereignty, Orthodox Christian values and opposition to globalism.

Georgescu was AUR’s prime ministerial candidate in 2020, illustrating his proximity to Simion, who supports EU sanctions against Russia but opposes further military aid to Ukraine, unlike Georgescu, who backed dialogue with Russia. Simion opposes Romania’s alignment with the EU and NATO, however.

Divided centre scrambles to unite

Romania’s presidential elections require an outright majority, leading to a runoff if necessary. A united centrist bloc could theoretically prevent Simion’s victory, but Romania’s political centre remains deeply divided.

Crin Antonescu, candidate of the ruling coalition, most recently polled at 26%, campaigning for stability and EU integration. Independent Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, with a platform focused on anti-corruption, urban development, and EU commitments, currently has 23% support.

Former Romanian prime minister Victor Ponta, running as an independent and advocating welfare reforms and balanced foreign policy has 9% support, while Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union (USR) has approximately 6% backing from voters, campaigning on transparency and digital governance. Although combined centrist support exceeds Simion’s polling, internal divisions and voter scepticism could undermine cross-party unity.

EU, US take opposing stances on election annulment

The annulment triggered protests, as tens of thousands demonstrated in Bucharest’s University Square on 12 January, followed by further protests near Parliament in February. Even Georgescu’s political rivals criticised the court decision, which Lasconi, who had been set to face him in the second election round, described as “illegal and immoral”.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in February: “Protecting electoral integrity is vital for Romania’s democracy and stability on Europe’s eastern flank.” At the annual Munich Defence Summit that same month, US Vice President JD Vance criticised the election annullment, saying “If a democracy can be overturned by modest foreign interference, its foundations were already weak.”

Social grievances boost nationalism

Regardless of the election outcome, Romania is experiencing a shift towards populist nationalism, as persistent socioeconomic issues fuel its appeal in a country where rural poverty exceeds 30% and inflation reached 14.7% in February 2025.

TikTok, popular among voters aged 18-30, amplifies nationalist messaging and is helping populists reach out to voters outside traditional media, as high youth emigration rates create fertile ground for their narratives.

Support has come from more traditional areas too, as former Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki visited Bucharest to support to Simion, calling him a “stabilising force” for Romania and the EU.

Incumbent Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticised Morawiecki for endorsing Simion, noting that he leads a pro-Russian and anti-European party, and emphasising Romania’s strategic importance in defending the eastern borders of the EU and NATO. Tusk added that Morawiecki’s support show his Law and Justice party is finally revealing its pro-Russian sympathies.