Dodik dodges arrest warrant, surfaces in Moscow

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik announced that he had arrived in Moscow on Monday 31 March, after Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) prosecutors ordered an international arrest warrant for his alleged flouting of the BiH Constitution.

BiH is facing its biggest political challenge in years, as Dodik escalates a legal and political standoff with state authorities by defying a court ruling. In late February, a Sarajevo court banned Dodik from politics for six years, and sentenced him to a year in prison for failing to implement decisions by the High Representative, the international envoy overseeing civilian implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995.

However, Dodik has refused to recognise the verdict, accusing state institutions of “overreach”. The RS Parliament responded by asserting its supremacy over judicial matters and barring the state court, prosecutor’s office and police from operating on RS territory. Dodik signed the related laws into effect on 22 March and has vowed to block any attempt to enforce the ruling.

Legal defiance goes international

The BiH Court then issued an international arrest warrant for Dodik after he refused to attend a hearing related to the case. Ignoring the warrant, Dodik travelled to Serbia and then to Israel, where he appeared at official events, including a commemorative ceremony on 28 March. Serbia, which granted Dodik citizenship in 2021, declined to arrest him.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic called the BiH court verdict “politically motivated” and warned against destabilising the region through what he called “provocations and legal adventurism”.

The moves have drawn strong reactions from Western governments. The US and UK, which have sanctioned Dodik in previous years, reiterated their support for BiH’s territorial integrity.

Dodik said RS would no longer accept the authority of Sarajevo courts or foreign-appointed officials, referring to High Representative Christian Schmidt, whose office responded that the RS premier’s actions represent a direct challenge to the constitutional order and warned of potential further international sanctions. ​

NATO said it “remains committed to the sovereignty and stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina” and confirmed that peacekeeping troops under EUFOR, the military deployment in BiH that oversees the implementation of the Dayton Agreement, have increased patrols in sensitive areas.

Secession fears resurface

After almost three decades of political stasis, Dodik’s defiance has revived fears that RS could attempt to secede from BiH, undermining the constitutional order established by the Dayton Accords. While RS leaders have periodically threatened withdrawal from state institutions, the current confrontation is viewed as more serious due to the legal measures enacted and Dodik’s personal legal jeopardy.

In a televised address on 30 March, Dodik said RS would “no longer accept the authority of Sarajevo courts or foreign-appointed bureaucrats”, referring to High Representative Christian Schmidt, whose appointment Dodik has refused to recognise. Schmidt’s office said Dodik’s actions “constitute a direct challenge to the constitutional framework” and warned of further international sanctions if RS continues to pursue what it called “unilateral nullification of state law”.

Precarity casts shadow over Dayton anniversary

“The red lines are being tested,” Democratization Policy Council senior associate Kurt Bassuener said, adding that “what we are witnessing is not just political theatre: it’s an existential threat to Bosnia’s constitutional order.”

EU officials have called for restraint and dialogue but have not initiated financial penalties or broader sanctions. BiH’s EU membership candidacy, granted in 2022, remains stalled due to persistent political gridlock and governance challenges. Sarajevo authorities say they intend to uphold the court ruling and maintain institutional order, while international actors weigh their next steps.

The crisis comes as BiH approaches the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement later in 2025. Analysts warn that Dodik’s confrontation could destabilise not only BiH but the broader Western Balkans, particularly if ethnic rhetoric escalates or if EU and NATO engagement weakens amid wider geopolitical distractions. The situation also poses significant challenges to the constitutional order and the country’s aspirations for EU membership.