Poland leads CEE’s rearmament charge, as Trump cools on NATO

Reading Time: 6 minutes

Poland is set to purchase an additional 180 K2 Black Panther main battle tanks for approximately USD 6.2bn (EUR 5.7bn), South Korean government officials announced on 9 March. The proposed agreement could be finalised as soon as next month and follows Poland’s earlier USD 12.4bn deal with South Korea for K2 tanks, K9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light attack aircraft, and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers.

Warsaw is leading the push among NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to expand military spending, as uncertainty over the United States’ long-term commitment to European security grows under US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly complained that European countries do not contribute enough to collective defence. Last week, Trump also paused intelligence sharing and suspended military aid to Ukraine.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that “the war in Ukraine, the new approach of the American administration to Europe, and the arms race started by Russia pose completely new challenges to us.” Speaking in Brussels on 6 March, Tusk stressed that Poland must take greater responsibility for its defence as geopolitical dynamics shift.

Poland mulls conscription

Poland has become NATO’s top defence spender relative to GDP, allocating 4.7% in 2025, up from 4.1% last year. As part of its military expansion, Tusk’s government is weighing plans to introduce military training for Polish men.

Tusk told the Polish Parliament that he aims to increase the army’s size from over 200,000—already the EU’s largest standing force—to half a million, including reservists. “We are talking about the need to have an army of half a million in Poland,” Tusk said, adding that Ukraine has 800,000 soldiers while Russia has around 1.3mn.

“We will try to have a model ready by the end of this year so that every adult male in Poland is trained in the event of war, so that this reserve is comparable and adequate to the potential threats,” he added. Poland also plans to convert civilian airports for dual military-civilian use, enabling rapid deployment of troops and equipment.

Polish parties struggle to put domestic rivalry aside

As a historical adversary of Russia, Poland’s two main political forces – Tusk’s centre-left Civic Coalition (KO) and the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party -have largely set aside their rivalry in defence matters, particularly in supporting Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion three years ago.

PiS-backed Polish President Andrzej Duda has proposed a constitutional amendment requiring Poland to spend at least 4% of GDP annually on defence and security. Tusk has said he is open to discussing the proposal, which would require a two-thirds majority in Parliament and therefore bipartisan support from KO and PiS lawmakers.

However, political tensions remain. On 10 March, Tusk accused PiS of being “politically and morally bankrupt” after the party criticised Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.

Defence firms on alert as EC launches rearmament programme

On 4 March, the European Commission announced ReArm Europe, an EUR 800bn defence investment plan designed to help member states expand military spending. The programme provides EUR 650bn in additional fiscal space over four years, allowing countries to boost defence budgets without breaching EU deficit rules. A further EUR 150bn in EU-backed loans will support defence-related projects.

The initiative also seeks to mobilise private capital through the Savings and Investment Union and the European Investment Bank. The funding is based on an estimated increase of 1.5% of GDP per member state.

Several key European defence contractors will play pivotal roles in Europe’s strategy to enhance its defense autonomy and address emerging security challenges, including BAE Systems, Thales, Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Saab, Airbus, Safran, Fincantieri, and Dassault Aviation. 

Collectively, these companies are integral to Europe’s rearment, for example, the UK’s BAE Systems is a partner in the Eurofighter Typhoon consortium and contributes to the F-35 stealth fighter programme. France’s Thales specialises in aerospace and defence electronics, while Germany’s Rheinmetall makes armoured vehicles and munitions. Italy’s Leonardo offers expertise in helicopters and defence electronics, and Sweden’s Saab manufactures Gripen fighter jets. 

Multinational Airbus and France’s Dassault Aviation are key players in military aircraft manufacturing, while France’s Safran provides advanced aerospace propulsion systems, and Italy’s Fincantieri is a leader in naval shipbuilding. 

Hungary vetos resolution, Kallas suggests workaround

Hungary was the only EU member state that refused to endorse a joint resolution denouncing Russian aggression and pledging continued support for Ukraine at the emergency summit on 6 March.

Like any EU member state, Hungary has the power of veto on major EU decisions requiring unanimity, including the six-month renewal of sanctions against Russia. In response to Hungary’s obstruction, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas suggested that support for Ukraine might proceed through a “coalition of the willing” to bypass Budapest’s veto.

Although the proposal has received initial backing from key EU officials and defence ministers, it will face scrutiny from member states wary of increased borrowing. Further discussions on allocation mechanisms and oversight structures are expected. The European Parliament and national governments will have to ratify the framework before funds can be disbursed.

Baltic states ramp up military spending

The Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, have been assertive regarding Ukraine, in part due to their proximity and historical experience with Russia. 

Lithuania plans to allocate between 5-6% of its GDP on defence from 2026-30, doubling its current expenditure. It is forming a land forces division of 10-15,000 troops and will host a German brigade of about 5,000 personnel. Estonia has pledged to increase its defence budget to 5% of GDP, up from 3.7%.

Meanwhile Latvia is planning to allocate at least 4% of its GDP to defence by 2026, with ambitions to raise it to 5%. Albania has deployed a small detachment of 21 Explosive Ordnance Disposal engineers to NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Latvia.

Southern European states follow suit

Romania is carrying out one of NATO’s largest infrastructure projects in Eastern Europe, building a major airbase at Mihail Kogalniceanu, near the Black Sea, which is set for completion by 2027. Romania has also committed EUR 6bn for 32 new F-35 fighter jets and EUR 1bn for 3 Patriot air defence systems.

Czechia plans to increase its defence budget to 3% of GDP by 2030, up from its current 2%. It will begin raising military spending in 2026, with annual increases of 0.2% of GDP. Czechia has openly reaffirmed its support for Ukraine, notably through a citizen-led initiative that successfully crowdfunded a Black Hawk helicopter for Kyiv. 

Slovenia has deployed forces to NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Latvia, including an infantry reconnaissance platoon, a Tactical Air Control Party team, and supporting personnel.

Croatia, which recently reintroduced conscription, has contributed a rocket artillery battery to NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Poland and a reconnaissance squad to Latvia. Montenegro has provided a reconnaissance squad to NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Latvia, reinforcing collective security efforts. Bulgaria hosts a NATO multinational battlegroup led by Italy, comprising around 1,650 troops as of late 2022.

Hungary, Slovakia balance NATO commitments with pro-Russian ties

Hungary and Slovakia, the EU’s two most pro-Russian governments, have also contributed to NATO’s regional military presence.

Slovakia hosts a multinational battlegroup led by Czechia, consisting of approximately 1,100 troops and has expressed interest in buying K2PL tanks made in Poland under a South Korean licence. However, political instability and a decision to cease direct military aid to Ukraine earlier this year have raised concerns among NATO allies about Slovakia’s strategic reliability.

While not directly blocking EU measures in the same manner as Hungary, Slovak Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico shaped the final resolution. To secure Fico’s support, the declaration included language calling on the European Commission, Slovakia and Ukraine to “intensify efforts towards finding workable solutions to the gas transit issue.” Fico, who has increasingly adopted anti-Ukraine rhetoric of late, has criticised Kyiv for ending the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory to Slovakia and other EU nations. However, he has refrained from obstructing EU-level decisions in the Orban mode so far.

Hungary also hosts a NATO multinational battlegroup, though its relationship with the alliance is more complex due to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ties with the Kremlin. The Hungarian battlegroup was established in 2022 and is positioned to reinforce NATO’s presence in southeastern Europe.

Budapest has heavily invested in advanced German-made armoured vehicles and air defence systems. However, unlike Poland and the Baltic states, which have strongly aligned with NATO’s hardline stance against Russia, Hungary has maintained a more ambivalent position, often resisting EU and NATO initiatives to increase pressure on Moscow.

Amid these geopolitical shifts, UK daily The Telegraph reported over the weekend that Trump is considering redeploying US troops to Hungary from Germany, where around 35,000 American troops are stationed. While no official decision has been announced, the move would mark a significant realignment of US military forces in Europe.

Moving US troops to Hungary could signal a broader realignment of NATO’s military presence in CEE, with increased responsibility falling on European allies to bolster their own defences amid uncertainty about Washington’s long-term support.

Tusk warned that Europe must take the arms race seriously. “Europe must join this arms race and win it,” he said. “I am convinced that Russia will lose this arms race—just as the Soviet Union lost the last one.”