Dodik ban from public office sparks protests in BiH

Republika Srpska (RS) president Milorad Dodik is once again at the centre of political turmoil in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) after being sentenced to a one-year prison term.

The Serb nationalist politician was convicted by a court of first instance for failing to implement decisions made by the Office of the High Representative (OHR), the international body overseeing BiH’s post-war governance.

Dodik has also been banned from holding the RS presidency for six years, a decision that could significantly alter the region’s political landscape.

Rising tensions in Republika Srpska

Dodik has long been a divisive figure in BiH, pushing for greater RS autonomy and repeatedly challenging state-level institutions. His conviction has heightened tensions, with his supporters condemning the ruling as politically driven.

Several thousand people rallied in Banja Luka over two days in support of Dodik, with the RS president telling the crowd that he “now needs support more than ever.” In response to the verdict, Dodik announced plans to introduce new laws banning BiH’s state-level court, prosecution, State Investigation and Protection Agency, and State Intelligence Agency from having any jurisdiction in RS.

Vucic, Porfirije back Dodik

Following the ruling, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic travelled to Banja Luka, where the National Assembly of Republika Srpska quickly adopted a series of statements rejecting the decision. The RS assembly dismissed the verdict, arguing that the Bosnian judiciary lacks legitimacy in RS.

Vucic’s visit highlights the deepening political divide, as Belgrade attempts to balance support for Dodik with its broader regional and EU-related objectives.

Serbian Orthodox Patriarch Porfirije has also weighed in on the ruling, describing it as unconstitutional and a violation of the Dayton Agreement. He warned that it could jeopardise three decades of efforts to heal war wounds and promote reconciliation, urging all parties to avoid escalating tensions.

“This ruling, undoubtedly unconstitutional and in violation of the Dayton Agreement, has the potential to undermine everything that has been achieved in the past thirty years,” Porfirije said, calling for calm and dialogue to prevent instability in BiH and the Balkans as a whole.

The crisis has raised concerns about BiH’s stability, particularly given Dodik’s history of defying state institutions and advocating for RS’s separation from BiH. The OHR and Western diplomats have warned that continued defiance of state authorities could lead to further sanctions and deepen BiH’s political deadlock.

Dayton’s legacy looms after nearly 30 years

The US State Department acknowledged the ruling, reiterating Washington’s longstanding support for BiH’s sovereignty and territorial integrity under the Dayton Agreement.

The Dayton Agreement, signed in 1995, remains the cornerstone of BiH’s post-war political structure. It ended the Bosnian War by establishing a complex power-sharing system between the country’s three main ethnic groups: Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs. The agreement created two highly autonomous entities: the Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska, with a weak central government.

The OHR was introduced to oversee the implementation of the accords and ensure compliance with international obligations. However, critics argue that Dayton has entrenched ethnic divisions and allowed figures like Dodik to exploit the system in pursuit of greater autonomy for Republika Srpska, periodically threatening the country’s territorial integrity.

This latest development underscores the fragility of BiH’s post-war framework. Dodik’s sentencing comes as BiH’s path to European integration faces growing challenges. EU officials have called on RS authorities to uphold the rule of law, while the verdict has reignited debates over the OHR’s role in maintaining BiH’s delicate power balance.

With tensions rising in BiH, the question is whether Dodik and his allies will intensify their resistance or seek a negotiated resolution. With Serbia’s backing, RS authorities may attempt to contest the ruling through legal and political means. However, the verdict’s enforcement and its impact on RS’s leadership remain uncertain. As the situation unfolds, the international community will closely monitor how both Dodik and his opponents respond.