Croatia eyes Russia’s share in Serbian oil firm NIS

Croatian Economy Minister Ante Susnjar said state-owned oil pipeline operator Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf) could acquire Russia’s stake in Serbian oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), calling the potential deal a “natural business symbiosis”, local media reported.

Janaf transports around 80% of the crude oil refined by NIS at its facility in Pancevo, north Serbia, and plays a central logistical role in regional energy flows. Susnjar has called energy ownership a key pillar of sovereignty, writing on X that “Croatia must lead, not follow, in regional energy security. We build resilience by owning infrastructure, not renting access.”

Russian stake reshuffle raises compliance questions

Russia holds 56.15% of NIS through Gazprom Neft (44.85%) and Gazprom (11.3%). The remainder is held by the Serbian government and minority shareholders. The company operates Serbia’s only oil refinery and is a major supplier across the Western Balkans.

The US imposed sanctions on 10 January targeting Russia’s oil sector, including companies with state-linked Russian ownership. To reduce exposure, Gazprom Neft transferred a 5.15% stake to Gazprom. It remains unclear whether this internal reshuffle will meet US compliance thresholds.

Serbia seeks more time as US waiver deadline looms

Serbia has requested a second waiver from the US Treasury to delay enforcement of the sanctions, arguing that sudden changes in NIS’s ownership could undermine domestic energy stability. A previous waiver granted earlier in 2025 provided a 30-day extension.

Despite the apparent commercial logic of a Croatian acquisition, legal and political barriers remain substantial. EU sanctions prohibit transactions with designated Russian entities. Serbia, which has not aligned with EU sanctions policy, may also be reluctant to approve a strategic acquisition by an EU-based state-owned firm.

Experts sceptical of shareholder willingness to sell

Energy analyst Sasa Djogovic told NIN that “the issue is not who is interested in NIS, but whether its shareholders are willing to sell.” He noted that any ownership change would require political agreement between all key stakeholders, including the Serbian government, which holds 29.87%.

Legal experts say a successful transaction would likely require a bilateral agreement and coordination with EU institutions. Croatian entities may also need to structure any bid carefully to avoid direct exposure to sanctions enforcement.

Susnjar has not provided a timeline or valuation for a possible offer. NIS has not responded to the reports, and Serbian officials have not signalled any willingness to divest the Russian-held shares.

Susnjar: ‘This is about who shapes the energy map’

On social media, Susnjar has framed the issue within a broader policy shift, promoting infrastructure ownership as a response to regional interdependence, stating that “interdependence is a fact — strategic ownership is the only rational response.” He has also linked the potential acquisition to Croatia’s energy transition goals, describing it as a way to “bridge the present with the green future.”

If completed, the deal would represent one of the most direct efforts by an EU member state to displace Russian control over strategic infrastructure in Southeast Europe, signalling a wider shift in the region’s post-sanctions energy alignment.

“This is not just about barrels and pipelines,” Susnjar wrote on X. “It’s about who shapes the energy map of the region in the decade to come.”