Trump’s verbal attack on Zelenskyy prompts security rethink in CEE

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The dramatic breakdown of relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump and US Vice President JD Vance on Friday, 28 February, is prompting Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations to urgently reassess regional defence strategies.

The meeting, streamed from the Oval Office, was ostensibly held to formalise a minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine, which Trump framed as a route to peace with Russia.

However, the press conference quickly descended into farce, as Vance and Trump berated Zelenskyy for his alleged ingratitude and “gambling with World War III”. After the meeting, Zelenskyy was told to leave the White House, according to US government sources.

Underlining the upending of Western security norms that the row laid bare, even US think tank The Atlantic Council is now saying European leaders should recognise the necessity to take on greater responsibility for Ukraine’s defence.

The Kremlin assessed that the Trump administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations: changes that largely align with its vision. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Zelenskyy of lying at the meeting, claiming that it was “a miracle of restraint how Trump and Vance restrained themselves and didn’t punch this scumbag”.

Tusk on necessity of defence autonomy

With US support for Europe’s security in doubt, European nations are accelerating efforts to build a self-sufficient defence framework. Most CEE leaders have expressed support for Ukraine and increasing European defence cohesion, with Kremlin-aligned Hungary and Slovakia the notable exceptions.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed the need for Europe to end its reliance on the US and develop its own independent defence strategy. Tusk said Europe must “believe we are a global power” and push for “defence independence”, at a security forum entitled “Securing Our Future”, convened by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Tusk also criticised the current imbalance in security arrangements, noting that it is “absurd for 500 million Europeans to ask 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million Russians”.

Czech President Petr Pavel, formerly NATO’s number two, said, “We stand with Ukraine more than ever. Time for Europe to step up its efforts.” Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala reinforced alignment with the Western liberal order, saying, “We stand with Ukraine and on the side of the free world.”

Summit backs new ‘coalition of the willing’

At the summit in London, French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his call for European “strategic autonomy” in response to Trump’s position, stating that “Europe can no longer rely on others to defend itself. Our security, our sovereignty, our future—it is up to us to guarantee them.” Macron’s government has proposed a new European Defence Council to coordinate military spending and deployments across the bloc. Starmer vowed to develop a “coalition of the willing” – which increasingly appears to be an alliance without the US. 

As well as Tusk, Fiala, Starmer, Zelenskyy and Macron, the attendees of the summit were NATO secretary general Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Norway Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Turkey Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Romanian interim President Ilie Bolojan and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

UK apologises to Baltic countries for invitation oversight

The exclusion of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from the summit provoked strong reactions from Baltic leaders, highlighting the growing security concerns of NATO’s easternmost members. Starmer apologised, acknowledging that their absence was a diplomatic misstep and reaffirming Britain’s commitment to Baltic security.

The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister and long-standing advocate of stronger European defence cooperation, said, “no country understands the Russian threat better than the Baltics”, adding that NATO must prioritise deterrence along the alliance’s eastern flank.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics echoed these sentiments, warning that any cracks in Western unity would embolden Russia. Meanwhile, former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said, “Europe must prepare for a scenario where US support is no longer guaranteed. That means real investment in defence, not just words.”

Some commitments were made at the summit including that military aid to Ukraine will continue, economic pressure on Russia will intensify, and any peace agreement should guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. In the event of a peace deal, Ukraine’s defensive capabilities would be strengthened, and a broader coalition would be formed to uphold the agreement and maintain stability. The UK committed to supporting this effort with ground troops and aerial support but admitted that success would still depend on strong backing from the US.

Further announcements are expected when European leaders reconvene in Brussels this Thursday. Starmer said he plans to present the plan to Trump after it has been formulated.

Hungary, Slovakia take opposite stance

While CEE countries reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s support for Trump and Slovakia’s deviation from NATO policy lay bare ongoing divisions over Europe’s defence strategy.

Hungary has consistently diverged from mainstream European policy, maintaining ties with Russia and advocating for a negotiated settlement rather than prolonged military support for Kyiv. Orban praised Trump. “Strong men make peace, weak men make war. Today, President @realDonaldTrump stood bravely for peace,” Orban tweeted. “Even if it was difficult for many to digest. Thank you, Mr. President!”

Slovakia, the EU’s other openly Russophile government, announced its decision to break from NATO’s stance and reject further military support for Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government has declared that the country will no longer provide weapons or aid, citing national interests. Fico added that prioritising domestic stability should take precedence over foreign conflicts.

Europe starts to scale up military

Germany is already adapting to Europe’s new security predicament, with Rheinmetall, Europe’s top ammunition producer, repurposing car plants in Berlin and Neuss for defence manufacturing. The transformation of Rheinmetall’s factories into hybrid plants – maintaining some automotive production while prioritising defence components – reflects a strategic industrial-policy shift.

At the same time, European leaders are acknowledging the urgent need to scale up military capabilities. Defence analysts estimate that reversing NATO’s underinvestment would require up to EUR 800bn. Trump’s calls for NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP have added further urgency to these discussions.

The chart above highlights a growing imbalance in global arms exports, with the US strengthening its dominance, while Russia’s share plummeted during the 2018-22 period, as its invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains and former clients sought alternative suppliers. France and Italy significantly expanded production, while Germany saw arms exports decline, due to its then reluctance to commit to large-scale military expansion.

Rheinmetall’s share price rose 7.5% on Monday, while the UK’s BAE Systems was up 14.9%, as JP Morgan upgraded its price targets for both companies.

Moldova, Romania stress security implications

Romania and Moldova, both of which border Ukraine, took firm stances in support of the war-torn country in the wake of Trump’s meltdown in the Oval Office. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said, “The truth is simple. Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine defends its freedom – and ours. We stand with Ukraine.”

Romania’s interim President Ilie Bolojan warned of the security consequences of US disengagement from European defence. “The security of Ukraine is crucial for the security of Europe. We all need to stand together to fight for our values, freedom, and peace.”

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic linked Ukraine’s struggle to his country’s own history, saying, “Croatia knows from its own experience that only a just peace can last,” referring to the aftermath of the wars that took place from 1991-2001 in what had been the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. He stressed that Ukraine needs a peace agreement that guarantees “sovereignty, territorial integrity, and a secure Europe”.

Slovenian President Natasa Pirc Musar criticised Trump’s approach, warning that his actions undermined international law and diplomacy. “We stand firmly in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty. We repeat, Russia is the aggressor. It is time for Europe to take the lead on the path to peace in Ukraine.”

Observers suggest EU defence commissioner, European army

The stakes are especially high for CEE nations, which face immediate security risks. While some, like Hungary and Slovakia, align with Trump’s vision of a negotiated settlement, others, such as Poland, Czechia, and the Baltic states, are doubling down on military readiness and unwavering support for Ukraine.

The European Council on Foreign Relations underscored the importance of a robust, decade-long plan to enhance Europe’s defence capabilities with reduced US involvement, address shortfalls and strengthen NATO and EU defence mechanisms.

Rym Momtaz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace floated the possibility of a European commissioner for defence to mitigate related industry fragmentation and improve NATO-EU cooperation.

Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Europe’s current approach of maintaining separate national militaries is neither logical nor practical without US backing and advocated for revisiting the concept of a unified European army to ensure cohesive defence strategies.

Europe may need to increase its defence spending by at least EUR 250bn annually and expand its forces by 300,000 troops to deter Russian aggression in the absence of US support, according to Assistant Director for Research at the GLOBSEC GeoTech Center Alexandr Burilkov and senior fellow at Bruegel and the Kiel Institute Guntram B. Wolff.