Populist surge in Romanian presidential election sees PM humbled in first round

Romania’s presidential election race has delivered an unexpected result, with independent far-right, pro-Russia candidate Calin Georgescu winning the first round with 22% support on Sunday, 24 November.

The Romanian presidency is a semi-executive role that gives the head of state control over defence spending, and this result now threatens Romania’s staunchly pro-Ukraine stance.

With 97.48% of the votes counted, Romania’s first-round presidential election results revealed relative newcomer to politics Georgescu had narrowly won the vote, a remarkable debut showing, ahead of pro-Western Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who garnered 20% of the votes.

With over 97% of the votes counted, liberal candidate Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union USR (RE) had narrowly beaten Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) into third place, although both registered 19.2%. Ciolacu was down over 3 percentage points (pp) while Elena Lasconi was up 4 pp.

Far-right populist George Simion of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), of which Georgescu was a member until 2022, won 13.9%, reflecting a widespread uptick in support for nationalist candidates. The candidate of the Christian conservative National Liberal Party (PNL) Nicolae Ciuca suffered a dramatic drop to 8.9% (-29 pp), signalling plummeting support. Other notable performances include UDMR’s Hunor Kelemen at 4.7% (+1 pp) and several new independent candidates, including Mircea Geoana (6.3%) and Cristian Diaconescu (3.1%).

Struggling with soaring prices, voters move rightwards

The positive result for Georgescu defied exit polls – and has rocked the Balkan country – after a campaign of anti-Western, pro-Russian, and far-right rhetoric. Political observers called the result Romania’s “worst case scenario”, which gives voters a stark choice in the second, run-off, round due on December 8.

Campaigns focused on economic grievances, including Romania’s soaring cost of living – the country currently has the highest inflation in the EU – and its high poverty rate, which the EU has identified as the bloc’s largest share of “at-risk” populations.

The Georgescu campaign’s use of clips on Chinese social media platform TikTok bypassed traditional media to build a grassroots following frustrated with the political establishment.

Moreover, the combined votes for Georgescu and Simion highlight the growing popularity of “sovereignist” ideologies that threaten Romania’s pro-Western alignment and democratic values. The result also reflects a broader European trend of political polarisation and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics, and Romania’s democratic and geopolitical trajectory now hangs in the balance.

Threat to Romania’s pro-NATO, US stance

Georgescu’s promised to end Romania’s “subservience” to the EU and NATO—especially regarding support for Ukraine and NATO’s missile defence system—signal a potential realignment of Romania’s foreign policy. As such, the result jeopardises the country’s reputation as a stable, pro-Western democracy and risks alienating international partners and deterring investors. The second election round could deepen that divide.

On Sunday evening Georgescu said “the rich of the system, today, in Romania, have become poorer, and the people, the poor Romanian people, have enriched themselves from this point of view. We have a duty to rebuild Romania and that is the most important.” Calling “the family, the backbone of the Romanian society” Georgescu looked forward to the second round, saying “We were many to vote and will also be many to vote in the second round.”

Crisis for pollsters

The blame game began as soon as Sunday’s election results rolled in; with Romania’s press, political institutions, and intelligence services accused of inflating Georgescu’s candidacy to weaken Simion, and failing to address Russian election meddling, allowing him to ascend unchecked.

The result also exposed the weakness of exit polls, which had projected Ciolacu as the frontrunner, followed by Lasconi. Despite the unpredictability of the results, voter turnout was consistent with the previous election at 51%, reflecting continuing voter engagement in a turbulent political environment.