Chinese troops drill near Belarus-Poland border

Poland has called for border protection discussions within NATO as China and Belarus carry out their first ever joint military manouevres near the Polish border.

Chinese soldiers carrying out “anti-terrorism training” in Belarus add a new dynamic to the security situation in Central and Eastern Europe, as Russia’s war in Ukraine nears the 2.5-year mark. The more than 100 Chinese troops practising airborne assault, river crossing and residential combat are expected to remain in Belarus until 19 July.

The 11-day Eagle Assault 2024 exercise began on Monday, 8 July in Brest, around 3 miles from Belarus’s border with Poland, a staunch ally of Ukraine. The proximity to the border of the drills has caused concern for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has said the country as facing a “hybrid war” of illegal migration, allegedly encouraged by Belarus.

Poland, NATO watching closely

The presence of Chinese troops in Europe, especially near Poland, signals Beijing’s potential involvement in the continent’s military issues, though it is unclear if this extends to direct military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Poland said it is following the situation closely. “We are closely monitoring the long-term cooperation between Beijing and Minsk as a factor with a potential impact on Poland’s security,” Poland’s Foreign Ministry told state news agency PAP, adding that it “is concerned” about China’s deepening military cooperation with Russia and Belarus.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said at last week’s summit in Washington. “This only confirms how authoritarian regimes are increasingly allying with each other, and how China is moving closer to NATO in Europe, Africa, the Arctic and elsewhere.” Moreover, the defence alliance increasingly sees the Pacific as a potential flashpoint and has sought to expand relations with regional partners.

China has remained unapologetic. “The joint military manoeuvres of China and Belarus are not directed against any country, and the Chinese authorities hope that Poland and Belarus will solve their problems through dialogue and consultations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.

Traditionally an ally of Russia, Belarus has recently made overtures toward China, seeking closer relations, and held what was techically its first joint drill with its own and Chinese troops.

Last August China and Belarus agreed to conduct more joint drills following a meeting in Minsk between China’s then-defence chief Li Shangfu and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus has also joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, established by China and Russia, which facilitates military cooperation.

According to China’s National Defence Ministry the drills have been part of “an annual plan and consensus”. The future of the cooperation will likely depend on developments with Russia’s fortunes in Ukraine.

Belarus has closely aligned with Russia’s war in Ukraine, providing staging grounds for Russian troops and equipment before the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Belarus has hosted Russian military forces, including aircraft and missiles used against Ukraine ever since.

In 2023, Russia began moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and the Belarusian military has participated in joint nuclear drills with Russia.

Analysts on ‘marriage of convenience’

Observers say Lukashenko may be looking to China as an alternative to Russia, which is facing international isolation and economic issues due to sanctions, making its reliability as a partner is increasingly in question, as Belarus itself also copes with sanctions.

“At first, state officials turned toward Russia, but now they are looking for other markets,” Anastasia Luzgina, researcher at the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC) told the Russian version of Deutche Welle. “About 70% of Belarusian trade is with Russia, and about 10% goes to China,” she underlined.

“To Belarus, this is a marriage of convenience. The EU market is closed to them and access to ports is also closed to them. The country must resort to using Russian and Chinese infrastructure and pursuing trade with the third world,” Pavel Matsukevich, researcher at the Center for New Ideas think tank told the Russian version of Deutche Welle. “Preparing for that takes time. It doesn’t happen overnight. Such drills always lead to tensions with neighboring countries,” he said.

“I would assess this as a kind of challenge to Russian influence in this area, even though that’s not how China is playing it. These exercises are more evidence of how intensively Belarusian-Chinese relations have developed in all areas,” Matsukevich added.

The start of the anti-terrorism drills coincided with a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Warsaw, where he signed a security agreement with Tusk.

Poland shores up border

For his part, Tusk announced on 29 May that his government would restore a buffer zone at the border as he unveiled plans for the “Eastern Shield” project. The PLN-10bn (EUR 2.35bn) initiative will feature physical barriers and advanced surveillance systems powered by AI.

The recent death of a Polish soldier, stabbed by a migrant at the border fence, has brought intense scrutiny to the already fraught border area. Three Polish soldiers were also arrested for shooting in the direction of migrants, further exacerbating tensions.