Poland sets date for era-defining election

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Polish President Andrzej Duda this week set October 15 as the date for a general election that both sides are calling Poland’s most important since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

Poland is an increasingly important player in EU relations, both economically and in terms of defence, making the election a potentially pivotal moment for the bloc as a whole.

Confirming the news, Duda tweeted on Wednesday: “Participate in the elections!!! With the approval of the National Electoral Commission on the proposed Sejm and Senate election date, I have set the election date for October 15, 2023. The future of Poland is a matter for us all! Exercise your rights!”

Polish daily Wyborcza Gazeta earlier predicted the election date as 15 October, the first of the possible dates, with the last one being 5 November. The announcement automatically marked the beginning of the campaign period, which ends one day before Poles cast their ballots.

Poland – outlier or EU’s future?

The ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) has ruled Poland since 2015 and has frequently been at odds with the EU over core values, especially rule of law issues, judicial and media reforms, and the curtailment of reproductive rights.

Poland is currently fined one million euros a day by the European Court of Justice for refusing to shut its controversial judicial disciplinary chamber, and a further half a million euros daily for the continued operation of the environmentally damaging lignite mine in Turow, near the country’s tri-border with Czechia and Germany.

The opposition wants to topple the “team” that has often been at odds with the EU, liberal daily Wyborcza Gazeta wrote, adding that “authoritarian political changes have deprived us of billions of euros in development fundings from the National Reconstruction Plan, specifically EUR 35bn in direct subsidies and cheap loans”.

Security policy will be a more favourable campaign subject for PiS, as Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak modernises the Polish army, and Wagner Group mercenaries amass on Poland’s eastern border. Military parades meanwhile showcase modern weaponry to impress voters, and the government’s message is clear: PiS can protect Poles – the opposition cannot.

Campaign tone already bruising

According to PiS chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a victory for the opposition Civic Platform party (PO), led by the centre-right politician Donald Tusk, would mean the end for Poland.

Tusk has frequently been painted by Kaczynski as an “EU envoy” and a traitor and puppet of Brussels and Germany, who has sold out Poland and would gladly do so again.

For his part, Tusk, Polish PM from 2007-14, European Council president from 2014-19, and European People’s Party president from 2019–22, is planning a women’s rights-focused March of a Million Hearts on October 1.

On Wednesday Tusk received even harsher words from a PiS politician, as Senator Jacek Bogucki tweeted: “100 years ago, Adolf Hitler first tried to take over the street. 90 years ago, he won the elections in Germany. How it ended … we remember. Fortunately, Poland is not Germany, and Tusk is not Hitler, despite the similarity … of certain actions.”

However Poland’s PR-based electoral system makes PO’s hopes of an outright victory even slimmer than PiS’s, and the movement has generally polled around five percentage points behind PiS since Tusk returned to domestic politics in 2021.

According to the latest polling data, PiS is currently leading with an average support of around 34.3%, ahead of the PO on 28.6%. The poll questioned 1,017 Polish voters on 10-11 August, and found far-right Konfederacja on 14.9%, Third Road on 10.8% and the Left on 9%.

PiS has consistently denied that it will enter into coalition with the Eurosceptic Konfederacja, which is more dubious regarding Poland’s support for Ukraine, and has called for scrapping income tax, banning abortion and limiting migration.

Although it is favourite to be the biggest party, PiS has strained relations with its coalition partners at times. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has had numerous clashes with the leader of PiS’s Catholic-nationalist partner Sovereign Poland, Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.

Another setback for the ruling party has been the recent dismissal of health minister Adam Niedzielski. Although PiS will hope that his successor, Katarzyna Sojka, will help improve the party’s image, a huge protest is to be held on 30 September by Poland’s largest doctor’s union and a trainee doctors’ association.

As well as the withdrawal of recent prescription reforms, the medics will also demand an increase in Poland’s health care spending, which at 6.5% as a share of GDP, is one of the EU’s lowest.

Migration front and centre

PiS has been keen to return to the anti-migration rhetoric which has helped it win elections in the past, and recently refused an EU deal on relocating migrants, and a referendum on the subject will also take place on election day.

Kaczynski announced in June that there would be a referendum on EU migration and asylum policy in tandem with the parliamentary elections. The Sejm authorised this, despite the objections of the opposition Senate. The question has not yet been set but is expected to use the same ballot boxes as the general election slips. 

Kaczynski also took inspiration from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban by allowing a referendum on migration to coincide with the parliamentary election.  

One of the referendum questions will be “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, according to the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?” Morawiecki revealed at the weekend.

Tusk has also leaned into anti-migrant rhetoric, and recently said “Poles must regain control over this country and its borders.”

To decline participation in the referendum, voters will have to refuse to accept that voting slip, which will be officially recorded by the Electoral Commission.

A referendum without spending limits for PiS

The timing of the announcement has led to concerns of an unfair advantage for the government due to recent events funded by the national budget, inaccessible to the opposition.

Elections and a referendum on the same day will enable PiS to gain additional money for the election campaign, as referendum expenses are financed from the state budget’s special-purpose reserves. 

PiS can no longer run its election campaign under the guise of state-funded “family picnics”.  However referendum committees may conduct a referendum campaign, but political parties, parliamentary clubs, associations, foundations and social organizations may set up such committees. 

In June, Morawiecki transferred PLN 10mn (EUR 2.25mn) to the family and social policy ministry for “implementation of information activities regarding the increase in the amount of the childcare benefit from January 2024”. 

Election represents high stakes battle

In light of Kaczynski’s comparison of the upcoming election drive to a “battle” in an interview with Polish weekly Sieci (Network), a highly combative campaign can be anticipated.

“It will be a hard battle and our army must be brave (and) ready not only for defensive actions, but also for offensive actions. It must understand that sometimes you also have to attack,” Kaczynski said. “It must accept that the natural fear of many people about colliding with an aggressive opponent must be overcome. It must also accept that there is a special discipline during the campaign,” he added.

“The enemy attacks very brutally. And we must respond to it effectively. This is our duty towards Poland. We must defend our economy, security and sovereignty today. The stakes are higher than ever, we may lose everything over everything we Poles have worked so hard for,” Kaczynski said. 

Wyborcza Gazeta wrote that Poland’s ruling coalition has set its goal as “breeding new elites and new citizens of national-Christian Poland (while) plundering public property – the PiS government transfers millions of budget money to its sympathisers through various institutions.” For Kaczynski and PiS, losing this election would mean courts trials and sentences, the liberal daily commented.